Misinformation, Conspiracy Theories and Extremism in an Age of Political Mega-Identities
Dr. Yotam Ophir
January 12, 2025
Dr. Yotam Ophir is an Associate Professor of Communications at the State University, Buffalo. His talk was titled, “Misinformation, Conspiracy Theories, and Extremism in an Age of Political Mega-Identities.” Based on his studying thousands of years of misinformation, and his forthcoming book, Misinformation and Society. It’s a pretty bleak assessment.
He started off discussing the epidemic, noting inequality of impacts, surprise, horror, anxiety, distrust of experts and officials, widespread conspiracy theories, quack solutions, scapegoating, and violence. Of course he was not talking about Covid, but the 1854 cholera outbreak. With Covid, in contrast to earlier times when diseases’ causes were not understood, information was widely available and spread fast. Yet in America, it was politicized like no disease before.
Giving Ophir his Lesson #1 — Nothing is new, but nothing is the same.
We’re living in what’s been called the “Post-Truth” era, blamed on Trump and social media. Yet before that we did have JFK assassination conspiracy theories, the 1980s-’90s “Satanic Panic” (resembling QAnon), and even further back, literal witch hunts. Today’s “Great Replacement Theory” also had antecedents. But what differs now is ubiquity of tools to create visual misinformation, and our intimate relationship with our devices.
His Lesson #2 was that we did not evolve to be seekers of accurate information. Yet we’ve had a longtime preoccupation with assessing reality, going back at least to Plato’s cave allegory. What evolution did endow us with is pattern recognition. Seeing what might be a tiger in the bushes, running away fast preserved your genes to reproduce, while if you deliberated, you’d be eaten. But such quick judgments often disserve us.
Ophir discussed some examples, displaying a chart showing a seemingly strong correlation between Maine’s divorce rate and margarine consumption. But a key point is that correlation does not mean causation, a principle most people don’t instinctively apply. And feelings tend to trump facts; if people feel crime is rising [they always do — FSR] facts won’t sway them. Meantime, another thing evolution gave us was prioritizing tribal solidarity over facts. We feel it’s more important to be in good with our social groups, which was vital for group survival.
His Lesson #3 was that misinformation is growing more political. The group thing operates especially strongly here, with many people’s principal sense of identity being their politics. And, further, the misinformation problem is asymmetrical — much bigger on the right. Ophir cited Chris Mooney’s book, The Republican War on Science. Battling the scientific consensus about climate change; even about evolution. We saw this too regarding Covid, with Trump voting areas having higher infection rates (due to science rejectionism). And it’s not just science, but misinformation and fake news more generally, which the right is more prone to seek, see, and spread.
The other side is not somehow magically protected. However, on the right, leadership and elites actively working to push falsehoods is a much bigger phenomenon. And they do so with increasing impunity.
So Lesson #4: The price for spreading misinformation is in sharp decline. In fact, it’s rewarded, not punished. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s political clout keeps growing. And of course Trump goes from triumph to triumph the more he lies. Indeed, Ophir asserted his voters trust him more than their own families! [Says something about the character of those families — FSR.]
Lying, Ophir suggested, is actually a conscious strategy, quoting Trump’s sometime consigliere Steve Bannon’s “Flood the zone with excrement” (using a more graphic word which wouldn’t make it into a CDHS newsletter). And the media can’t turn away, because the public eats it up.
In the Q&A there was reference to “the marketplace of ideas.” A free marketplace, Ophir amended. Not what we have, when Facebook for example decides what you’ll see — based on trying to maximize “engagement” (and thus ad revenue).
Finally, Lesson #5: There’s no silver bullet solution. Ophir rounded up the usual obvious remedies, but said they really don’t seem to work; can even backfire, making people even more wedded to false beliefs. Instead we need big systemic changes — bolster democratic institutions; curb money in politics; restore the authority of party leaderships; rebuild journalism with perhaps public media; advance media literacy education. [And make pigs fly — FSR.]
But he ended by quoting Leonard Cohen: “There’s a crack in everything. That’s how the light gets in.”