Conspiracy Theories & the People Who Believe Them
Joseph Uscinski
June 11, 2023
Joseph Uscinski is a political science professor at the University of Miami, author of Conspiracy Theories – a Primer.
Conspiracy theories (CTs) have gotten much attention lately; we’re said to be in a “golden age” of them.
The pandemic fueled it, with proliferating CTs about its origins, treatments, vaccines, etc. Trump and Trumpism have played a big role too.
About 70% of Americans believe CTs are out of control. Much blame is cast upon social media, especially Facebook; Mark Zuckerberg thus a prime villain.
Uscinski avowed that CTs are not a good thing: promoting dubious ideas, scapegoating, “non-normative” behavior (ranging from vaccine refusal to violence), and even ill-advised government action responsive to CT believers. But trying to regulate this has downsides: decreased free speech, innovation, and choices. There’s no good way to determine what’s legitimate advocacy.
He posited that it’s actually not (false) information as such that drives CT beliefs, but who we are leads us to toward certain kinds of information in the first place. “Anti-social people seek out anti-social ideas and act in anti-social ways.” Nobody falls into that by accident. We have predispositions and group attachments; we want to think like others like us. There’s the question of who we trust, or not; declining trust in societal institutions – like mainstream news media – loosens our grip on truth and reality. Exploited by political actors.
A recurring theme in his talk is how difficult it is to change anyone’s dearly held beliefs. People latch onto anything that meshes with their pre-existing frameworks, and shun anything discordant. [This is called confirmation bias – FSR]
Uscinski reviewed three specific CT cases, with reference to polling he’s overseen. First, the JFK assassination. Initially, JFK CTs were believed by about 50%, rising to around 80%. But that was actually before the internet and social media kicked in. And when they did, belief slid back down to little over 50% today.
Secondly there was the plethora of Covid CTs, with belief steady at around 30% and not rising. And third, QAnon – believing Trump is in a secret war against a deep state of baby-eating pedophilic Satanists (yes). For all the concern about QAnon, Uscinski found supporters holding at just around 5%.
Then he looked at two more recent cases. A new panic about supposed sexual “grooming” of children in schools; and the “great replacement theory” positing that elites are working to swap out whites for more pliable brown-skinned newcomers. He found belief in both these CTs in the 20-30+ percent range.
It might be noted that these CTs seem largely to be a thing of the political right. And it was brought up in the question period that such beliefs seem to correlate with religious faith. [CT believers, religious believers, and Trump supporters, are pretty much the same people. Perhaps belief in a supreme being makes the brain vulnerable to other crazy stuff – FSR.]
Uscinski also studied 37 additional CTs, and belief levels over time. He found they’d increased in 6 cases, decreased in 15, and held steady in 16. His bottom line from all this: it’s just not true that CT belief is a growing problem; and there’s little evidence of social media contributing. He situated that idea in a long line of tech panics, dating back centuries. One might say the notion of social media driving CTs is itself a CT.
But he opined that, in the big picture, people are actually getting smarter. So he ended by posing the question, is the CT problem really worse than ever? – and answered it by saying, worse than when we were burning witches?