An Analysis of Election Results
Rosemary Armao
November 13, 2022
Rosemary Armao is a veteran journalist and adjunct professor of journalism at SUNY and RPI; she also appears on WAMC radio panels. She led a discussion of the recent election results.
The main headline, of course, is that the expected “red wave” of Republican triumph didn’t happen. Armao said that a big factor was the abortion issue; while that was expected to help Democrats, it was widely thought that the impact had faded beside other issues like inflation and crime. But abortion proved to be a big factor after all, especially driving younger voters to the polls in unexpectedly large numbers. Armao noted that all referendums concerning abortion, even in Kentucky, were won by the pro-choice side.
Inflation and crime did work as issues for Republicans, but only up to a point. While Democrats have been critiqued as just playing reaction to the GOP on such stuff, a lot of voters noticed that for all their stress on those issues, Republicans never actually offered programs to tackle them. And the economy is not tanking, with the job picture actually being very strong. As to the crime issue, while New York’s bail reform was a Republican talking point, otherwise their attacks on Democrats were fake.
President Biden was criticized for making a big issue of democracy being threatened by Republican MAGA extremists, rather than focusing on the economy. But Armao opined that the (modern) conventional wisdom of “it’s the economy, stupid,” turned out to be wrong, for this election at least, and that democracy did prove to be a strong issue. And while Republicans tried to make it a referendum on Biden and his supposedly weak performance, with low approval ratings, no one could avoid the contrast with Trump, far more hated. Compared to Trumpers, Democrats look sane and reasonable.
Case in point: the Republican responses to the attack on Paul Pelosi, many of them joking about it, made them look bad. And while Trump campaigned for his chosen candidates, he made it all about himself and his “stolen election” lie. Candidates pushing that line did poorly. But Armao was skeptical that the Republican party would finally turn away from Trump. And she said they’re not really paying an electoral penalty for hypocrisy.
They do still seem (as of November 13) likely to win control of the House of Representatives – thanks more to gerrymandering than electoral strength. Armao noted that their whole margin of victory there is coming from just two states, heavily gerrymandered Florida, and New York where the Democrats attempted a brazen gerrymander but messed up and wound up with the Court of Appeals imposing a map that actually favored Republicans.
She did acknowledge that Republican control of the House will mean trumped up investigations and other such mischief, but hoped the Senate remaining in Democratic hands would prevent much damage. However, there is a real danger that the debt ceiling can’t be raised, which would have grave economic consequences.
There was discussion of 2024, and the question of Biden running again. Armao opined that anyone at his advanced age can’t be at the top of their game. And that Kamala Harris has been a “failure,” so far at least. But she thought Democrats do have some other promising prospects, naming Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, California’s Gavin Newsom, and Pennsylvania’s newly elected Josh Shapiro. Any of whom she felt would beat Trump-Stefanik or DeSantis-Haley.